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Major geopolitical events almost always ripple through global supply networks, and the escalating conflict involving Iran is already raising concerns across multiple fronts. From potential disruptions to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz to tighter airspace restrictions and rising energy prices, the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran could affect transportation, manufacturing and procurement channels worldwide.
The situation remains fluid and the long-term implications are still unclear. In the meantime, supply chain teams are already looking for pressure points that could emerge if the conflict expands or drags on. Here are several areas companies should be paying attention to.
Shipping Disruptions Ripple Outward
According to AP, the conflict is slowing and/or halting vessel movement in the Strait of Hormuz, an important artery for global trade. Some cargo ships are stuck inside the Persian Gulf and others are diverting around the southern tip of Africa, adding time and cost to the total travel route.
Clarksons Research estimates that about 3,200 ships, or roughly 4% of global ship tonnage, are currently idle inside the Gulf, while another 500 vessels are waiting outside regional ports, AP reports. The disruption could potentially affect global logistics systems.
“The supply chain is kind of like a long train with many cars and each car represents, let’s say, a port in the world,” Michael Goldman, general manager North America at CARU Containers, told AP. “If one car gets derailed, it can very often have a domino effect.”
Longer Routes Could Lead to Higher Shipping Costs
AP also says some carriers are already rerouting vessels away from the region as tensions rise. Maersk said it is diverting certain ships around the Cape of Good Hope instead of sending them through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, a move other shipping companies are making to avoid the region.
That detour can add 10 to 14 days to a voyage and roughly $1 million in additional fuel costs per ship, according to Syracuse University supply chain professor Patrick Penfield. Higher fuel costs, longer routes and increased risk in the region are also prompting some carriers to introduce fuel and war-risk surcharges.
“As this conflict keeps progressing, you’ll start to see some shortages, you’ll see some major price increases,” Penfield told AP.
Auto Supply Chains May Feel It First
The automotive supply chain may be among the first to feel the impacts if the conflict expands. The Middle East sits at the crossroads of major Asia-Europe trade routes and hosts several key logistics hubs that handle the movement of vehicles, components and raw materials.
Automotive Logistics reports that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by roughly 70% within hours of the initial military strikes. The waterway typically facilitates about 11% of global maritime trade and sits near more than 30 million TEUs of containerized port activity.
It says several major shipping lines have already issued operational updates tied to the situation. Carriers including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO Shipping and Hapag-Lloyd have instructed vessels to move to safer waters, paused certain bookings and introduced temporary surcharges while they assess conditions in the region.
“The Strait of Hormuz coming to a standstill has caused a tidal wave of disruption for global logistics operations, forcing shippers to re-route vessels and suspend bookings,” the publication says, “with limited access to the strait also causing spikes in oil and gas prices.”
Air Cargo Networks Under Pressure
Freight forwarders are warning customers to expect delays, irregular schedules and rising rates as airlines suspend or reroute Middle East operations, according to Air Cargo News. It says aircraft redeployments and route changes are already tightening available capacity on several international trade lanes.
For example, global freight forwarder DSV told shippers to prepare for extended transit times and possible schedule changes as airlines adjust their flight networks in response to the strikes and resulting airspace restrictions. The forwarder also warned that space constraints and short-notice rate adjustments could emerge as capacity tightens.
Airlines and logistics providers are also preparing for higher operating costs. Air Cargo News says carriers may introduce war-risk surcharges and higher fuel charges for shipments routed through or near affected regions, which could push airfreight rates higher if disruptions persist.
