7 Supply Chain Predictions for 2026

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December has arrived, which means it’s time to reflect on the past year’s market movement and start looking ahead to 2026 for the trends that may shape planning. Companies are closing out a year of shifting demand and uneven transportation costs. Many are taking stock of what worked, what didn’t and where they need to adjust.

Operating at the intersection of logistics and real estate, Prologis tracks how warehouse demand, transportation activity and on-site operations shift across different markets. The company develops and manages logistics facilities around the world and also monitors how energy use, equipment needs and workforce issues show up inside those buildings. That mix gives Prologis a unique viewpoint on conditions heading into 2026.

In its new Bold Predictions for 2026: Supply Chain Trends to Watch report, Prologis pinpoints these seven trends that all supply chain operators should be watching and responding to during the coming year:

1. Rising freight costs. Trucking capacity continues to shrink, which means higher transportation costs for operators planning 2026 budgets, Prologis predicts. Active carrier authorities are down 12% from the 2022 peak as small fleets exit and new regulations take hold. Tender rejections and spot rates are climbing, signaling tighter conditions ahead. Freight costs rose 3.5% in 2025 and are expected to keep rising. Well-located facilities that shorten delivery distances may help offset part of the increase.
   
   
2. Utilization reaches capacity. Warehouse utilization rose through 2025 and is expected to reach expansion levels in 2026. Essential goods, e-commerce and manufacturing users led the increase, with retailers following ahead of holiday cycles. Prologis says that if current trends continue, companies may run out of functional capacity next year, pushing them toward new leases, layout adjustments or rightsizing efforts. Planning earlier in the year will matter as utilization tightens across key markets.
   
   
3. Power becomes even more pivotal. Power availability will be a top factor in 2026 location planning as grid capacity tightens. Europe faces connection delays and caps, Mexico’s manufacturing hubs report limited supply and some U.S. regions show minimal remaining firm capacity. Automation, HVAC loads and equipment needs continue to raise energy use. Fully automated sites require several times more power than recent-year buildings, according to Prologis, which means some companies will need to confirm energy access early in the site-selection process.
   
   
4. Expansion of defense activity. Defense spending increases in the U.S. and Europe will influence industrial space availability and competition. Prologis says European nations raising budgets toward 5% of GDP will drive activity in strategic corridors across key markets. In the U.S., more small and midsize suppliers are leasing secure space to support localized production. These operations often require high-power or specialized manufacturing specs, which may tighten options for companies seeking similar capabilities in the same regions.
   
   
5. Tighter global markets. International conditions will play a larger role in 2026 planning. Europe’s vacancy rate is expected to fall below 5% as limited development restricts new supply. Brazil is on track for another year of double-digit rent growth due to decade-low vacancy in major markets, Prologis reports, and India is entering a development and leasing expansion as logistics modernization accelerates. Operators with global footprints should prepare for uneven costs and potentially tighter availability.
   
   
6. Coastal hubs rebound. Gateway U.S. markets may see stronger demand as rents normalize and Class A space becomes more available in 2026, Prologis predicts. Access to large population centers and transportation networks is pulling users back to coastal hubs. Rent premiums have returned to pre-pandemic levels, improving the price-to-value ratio for 2026 planning. These markets may also see more activity as companies position inventory closer to consumption.
   
   
7. E-commerce demand grows. E-commerce operators are expected to account for nearly 25% of new leasing in 2026 as global online sales approach 20%, according to Prologis. It says Asian platforms are expanding into Europe and Latin America, while Amazon and Mercado Libre continue growing regionally. In the U.S., companies are adjusting to de minimis changes and shifting toward blended onshore storage and cross-dock models.